Saturday-Sunday, 1-2 March, 2003
Monday-Wednesday, 3-5 March, 2003
Friday, 7 March, 2003
Sunday, 9 March, 2003
Saturday-Sunday, 1-2 March, 2003
Blair flies in as negotiations reach climax
Talks 'absolutely critical' for entire Ireland
By RM Distribution
Hopes are high ahead of a potentially historical summit in Belfast on Monday involving the Irish and British Prime Ministers and delegations from all the parties which have participated in power-sharing in the North of Ireland.
The goal remains the restoration of the political institutions in Belfast and the full implementation of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement -- potentially leading to a new phase in the long process of peace and reconciliation.
But despite reports of some progress in behind-the-scenes talks between Sinn Fein and the British government, there is still a swathe of outstanding issues which remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, unionists have been seeking to renegotiate areas of the Good Friday Agreement in ways which are anathema to republicans and which threaten to scupper any potential deal.
Excited tabloid speculation in advance of today's summit was dismissed by all parties, but this did not diminish hopes that a backlog of obstacles can be cleared this week.
Among the key issues up for discussion are British demilitarisation, IRA decommissioning, policing and justice reform, devolution of more powers from London and the integrity of the devolved institutions.
On Sunday, Sinn Fein chief negotiator Martin McGuinness told a republican commemoration in South Armagh that the talks would be "absolutely critical to the future of this entire island".
So far, negotiations had been "tough, focused and detailed", he told the rally. Despite an appeal for rapid 'acts of completion' by the British Prime Minister in October, the talks had only moved into a higher gear in recent weeks, he said.
"Nonetheless, some movement has emerged, particularly around a British government commitment to new legislation on policing and criminal justice."
Some progress was also made on other matters which did not require legislation, but Sinn Fein was pursuing implementation on several fronts.
"Our goal is to achieve progress across all of the issues, like policing, criminal justice, demilitarisation, equality, human rights and the Irish language, as well as tackling the future sustainability and stability of the political institutions and what that means for Ulster unionists.
"That means acts of completion by the British government which convince republicans and nationalists that there is a process, a plan in place that will see the full implementation of the Good Friday Agreement."
Mr McGuinness also criticised Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble, who has suggested sanctions should be imposed on Sinn Fein on the basis of allegations of IRA activity, including the possible expulsion of the party's Ministers from the power-sharing Executive.
The move has been seen as an attempt to place conditions on nationalist democratic rights by the back door, treating Sinn Fein voters as second-class citizens.
"We made our compromise when we negotiated the Good Friday Agreement," said McGuinness. "No-one under any circumstances has any right whatsoever to ask us to compromise on that compromise."
McGuinness added: "Any move to introduce sanctions would be entirely outside the terms of the Good Friday Agreement and will be resisted by us.
"Under no circumstances will Sinn Fein accept the rights of our electorate being diluted or denied. We will not be held accountable except for the Sinn Fein party and our mandate."
HARD LINE
He urged the leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party to grasp the opportunity to move forward. But David Trimble's party has seemed semi-detached from the talks amid continuing indications of internal dissent over any possible deal allowing Sinn Fein back into government.
Trimble maintained a hard line in a speech to the party's ruling Ulster Unionist Council on Saturday. Visible decommissioning, a demonstration by the IRA that the war is over, and sanctions against Sinn Fein should the IRA fail to please were essential parts of any agreement, according to Mr Trimble.
The IRA had "to go away", he said. "We need open clear statements that the war is over for good, and is not going to be restarted". He called for full and public decommissioning of IRA arms in order to boost unionist confidence.
But an appeal by Trimble for party unity was effectively ignored by anti-Agreement MPs, Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside.
"There will be an election," said Trimble. "As things stand, we ought to do well. We will not do so, if a faction within the party acts as if they were fighting their own party."
Trimble stopped short of calling for IRA "disbandment" but Jeffrey Donaldson insisted that total disbandment and disarmament was the only way by which Ulster Unionists would return to the Executive with Sinn Fein.
"The bottom line for unionism has to be what we agreed last September at the Ulster Unionist Council. We need to see the IRA disarm and disband and that remains the position," said Donaldson.
Mr Trimble, who was unanimously re-elected UUP leader at the meeting, told delegates that he had never tried to manoeuvre the UUP party "into a position it did not want" and promised to put any deal to an emergency meeting of the ruling Ulster Unionist Council.
Such a meeting could take place as early as Saturday week, according to reports. Devolution could then be restored in time for the formal dissolution of the Assembly on March 21st ahead of the scheduled Assembly election on May 1.
Monday-Wednesday, 3-5 March, 2003
'Unfinished business' as elections are put back
By RM Distribution
Negotiations continue following marathon talks
There is still unfinished business before a deal will be reached on the implementation of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement after a marathon round of talks aimed at restoring devolution to the North of Ireland at Hillsborough Castle in County Down.
Despite the departure of Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble at 7pm on Tuesday night, intensive negotiations involving the British and Irish Prime Ministers and the pro-Agreement parties on a draft declaration continued until the early hours.
Following the end of the talks without a clear breakthrough, the two premiers announced that the upcoming Assembly election would be postponed by four weeks, from May 1 to May 29, to allow for one last effort to restore the North's devolved government before the election.
The current phase of negotiations commenced in December and picked up pace in January, taking on intense proportions two weeks ago. A 15-hour negotiation session took place in Belfast on 20 February, followed by two days of talks in London and one in Dublin. These negotiations culminated in the discussions in Hillsborough on Monday and Tuesday.
One of the major stumbling blocks preventing a deal on Tuesday night was the Ulster Unionists' insistence on sanctions which could be imposed on Sinn Fein as a penalty for any future activity by the IRA.
UNACCEPTABLE
The Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams today repeated his party's view that this was unacceptable.
"Sinn Fein is not against parties or party members being held to account if they are in breach of commitments or pledges of offers or house rules.
"We cannot accept and will not accept the Government stepping outside the Good Friday Agreement to bring in sanctions which are aimed at us for something another organisation may or may not be responsible for," he added.
Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams says the party is "pleased with the progress that has been made" this week, but he stressed that there is more negotiating to be done.
New legislation on policing and criminal justice, demilitarisation, equality, human rights and the Irish language were all dealt with in the talks, with developments made in most areas. Progress was also made on details of policing and criminal justice that do not require legislation.
Adams said that despite these developments, however, problems remain. "There are still gaps on important issues and more discussions are needed," he said. "This is a work in progress."
"The question of going to the IRA doesn't even arise at this moment if we can't get (Ulster Unionist Party leader) David Trimble to stay in one place long enough to find out exactly where he is on all of these issues," he said.
Sinn Fein party Chairman Mitchel McLaughlin said that progress had been made during the Hillsborough talks but on a "two steps forward, one step back" basis.
But he expressed disappointment that the Irish government has moved to support unionist demands for sanctions on Sinn Fein.
Mr McLaughlin said: "There are huge issues here and we are disappointed that the Irish government has actually moved to a position of supporting this demand by the unionist party before they had worked out all of the detail."
He said his only regret was that the parties did not give themselves enough time.
"I think there was progress on policing. We haven`t closed on it yet but we made progress," he told Irish radio.
"I think we made particular progress on criminal justice, on the equality agenda and the bill of rights, the human rights issue itself and the Irish language rights. And I think the work on that will continue over the next few weeks."
He said that on the whole he was pleased with the progress that was being made.
"We have to now work on closing the gaps on the remaining issues and we are concerned that the delay in the elections will allow the No camp to recuperate and to get in among those issues before they are finally closed," he added.
UUP WAITING
There was some concern among nationalists that a precedent has now been set by the postponement of elections in order to deal with the fresh unionist demands.
Ulster Unionist Party Reg Empey MP claimed his party had only entered negotiations on the understanding that the IRA had to decommission, engage in acts of completion and Sinn Fein become subject to sanctions.
"We will go to our party when we feel these issues have been resolved," he said. "All our efforts are directed to this end."
He added: "We have no plans to re-enter the administration at this stage and we will await developments next month."
The British Prime Ministerand the Irish Taoiseach are to return to Belfast in April to finalise their plan.
Tony Blair claimed there was a "shared understanding" of how to move the process forward. Insisting the governments' plan was final, he said: "I think there is a very large measure of agreement and where there isn't agreeement, people know where the governments are going."
Speaking at the joint press conference, irish Taoiseach Bertie Ahern said: "We have not, perhaps, been able to resolve every point to a conclusion, but we have certainly moved it a long way forward".
Both leaders said that they hoped all the northern parties would take away the governments' blueprint for discussion with their members over coming weeks.
Mr Blair added: "We ask that people are patient over this coming period of time and do not judge the agreement by partial leaks but concentrate on what we are trying to achieve here".
But despite the impression given by the governments that negotiations were finished and it was now up to the parties, Sinn Fein has stressed that for republicans, negotiations are far from over and there will be continuing engagement with both governments and the unionists.
Gerry Adams was in contact with the governments on Wednesday, while Martin McGuinness met with the Ulster Unionists on Wednesday afternoon.
Sinn Fein's talks with unionists revolve around the need for future stability and sustainability of the institutions. Sinn Fein is seeking clear and unambiguous commitments from the Ulster Unionists.
As one republican source put it, "this process has been like Humpty Dumpty for the last five years, spending more time on the ground than on the wall. We cannot have a deal emerge that risks perpetuating that situation." And, of course, sanctions provide unionists with the means to do exactly that.
"There has been a decision by the governments to bring in sanctions which would clearly be aimed at Sinn Fein. We have told them that this is entirely unacceptable," said Adams.
Apart from sanctions, the second major issue that remains to be resolved is equality, with Sinn Fein seeking timeframed measures for progress.
The third is policing, and here there are three main sticking points: representativeness, that is how quickly and how many republicans and nationalists will be able to join to make the force representative of the communities it serves; plastic bullets; and a range of matters relating to Special Branch.
Progress also needs to be made on demilitarisation, while the fifth major issue is Irish language funding. On that, Bairbre de Brun has managed to secure a commitment from the Dublin government for funding.
For now, however, despite significant progress, the process remains stalled, with Assembly elections put back a month and still no restoration of the institutions.
Monday-Wednesday, 3-5 March, 2003
Feature: Hillsborough talks adjourned and election delayed
By Laura Friel, RM Distribution
The media had been full of it. David Trimble no longer flanked by UUP dissidents, republican veteran Joe Cahill quietly arriving, Gerry and Martin engrossed in conversation, Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair sharing a joke. All the speculation was built around a few pertinent photographs and too many idle hours for journalists standing outside in the bitter winds of a northern spring.
The talks in Hillsborough began early on Monday morning, Ahern arriving just too early to be greeted by the British Prime Minister, who skipped up the castle steps moments later full of grins and witticisms for the prompt Irish Taoiseach. Smiles for the cameras but few words. Journalists, forced to rely on governmental and party statements of optimism and the promise of progress, filled their copy with the usual speculation.
While the Irish News was focusing on "bridging the gaps" to ensure the full implementation of the Good Friday Agreement, the Belfast Newsletter was predictably preoccupied with maintaining the unionist veto. "Unionist consent is something the [British] Prime Minister and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern must keep uppermost in their minds."
Speaking at the weekend in South Armagh, Sinn Fein's chief negotiator, Martin McGuinness, had described the Hillsborough talks as "absolutely critical to the future of the entire island". And he had a message to the leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party: "We say there is an opportunity here to move forward."
David Trimble had told Saturday's meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council: "We want the Assembly back." Significantly, party supporters rather than hard line anti-Agreement elements had flanked Trimble. Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside were left to snipe from the sidelines. Trimble was re-elected as UUP leader unchallenged but proposals to transfer powers from the 860-strong council to the 120-strong party executive failed.
Earlier criticism of Trimble's handling of the peace process by the US National Committee on Foreign Policy had been dismissed by UUP spokespersons, but privately they admitted Trimble had been rattled. The US think tank had been 'disappointed' by Trimble's performance; the UUP leader had failed to stand up for the Good Friday Agreement, said committee chairperson Bill Flynn.
Dr George Schwab, the committee's president, went even further, accusing Trimble of destabilising the Agreement by "constantly issuing ultimatums" which went "far beyond what was provided for in the Good Friday Agreement".
But the anticipated political demise of the UUP leader predicted by the US committee appeared a little premature. Irish Times columnist Frank Millar suggested that electoral changes could assist Trimble in tackling the anti-Agreement dissidents within his own party.
As with all parties in the North, the UUP has registered its name, logo, description and the name of its 'nominating officer' with the Electoral Commission. Registered as the nominating officer, Trimble can select and deselect candidates in any forthcoming elections.
In the balance, Trimble believed a deal was possible but if it wasn,t, republicans, not unionists, would be seen to be the problem. "We have tried, tried and tried again to wean republicans from violence," said Trimble, in the offensive tone he appears to feel he must adopt when speaking to his own supporters.
"If we fail again the world will know that republicans, not unionists, have blocked the path to peace, blighted hopes for the future, frustrated the Agreement. The onus is on them," Trimble told party members.
Meanwhile at Hillsborough, a joint document had been drawn up by the British and Irish governments, the media was told, which could be presented later. A deal was possible a British 'insider' was reported as saying.
"Positive messages are coming from Sinn Fein, the Ulster Unionists and all the main players. While we don't underestimate the problems, we believe the gaps can be bridged," said the British official.
Inside Hillsborough, party delegates were allotted rooms as a series of bilateral meetings began. With Sinn Fein, the SDLP and Women's Coalition assigned one corridor and the unionist parties another, there was no chance of any informal bartering.
Draft documents presented by the governments were monitored and collected after sessions by officials. And there was to be no conferring during meal breaks either, with soup and sandwiches delivered separately to every party present.
Outside Hillsborough gates, the media waited, deadlines for press announcements came and went until it was finally confirmed that the talks would be reconvened on Tuesday morning for an extra, unscheduled day.
Tuesday morning editions of the Irish News and Irish Times reported 'confident' leaders and a new deal possible but for the Belfast Newsletter 'hopes' were already 'on hold'.
"The bones of a political deal are being put together which could lead to total implementation of the Good Friday Agreement," said William Graham of the Irish News.
The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister are "still confident that a deal can be brokered", wrote Gerry Moriarty of the Irish Times. Ahern was "optimistic" and the talks were resuming "to ensure the greatest level of progress and mutual understanding by all the parties", he said.
"Make or break talks to save the peace process will fail if tough sanctions are not installed to guard against future IRA activity," the Newsletter reported Trimble as saying. "We will be back tomorrow," Trimble had told the Newsletter on Monday night, and taking a swipe at the DUP, added "as always we have made sure the unionist voice is heard".
Writing in the Sunday Tribune, Susan McKay had already identified unionist demands for 'sanctions' as untenable. "The trouble with this scenario is that Trimble, like other unionists, is willing to regard even the suggestion of IRA activity as evidence," said McKay.
For northern nationalists the unionist demand is not just unworkable, it is downright hypocritical, following over two years of sustained unionist paramilitary violence - a campaign that unionist politicians like David Trimble explained away while simultaneously using it as a vehicle to pursue a political agenda shared with violent unionism.
Yet despite this, the British government has colluded in letting unionist politicians off the hook, in his recent 'fork in the road' speech, Tony Blair dismissed unionist paramilitary violence as 'criminal', as a means to absolve unionist politicians of all responsibility.
In stark contrast, republicans have shown a clear willingness to face up to all their responsibilities in the collective project of making politics work. But the introductions of sanctions designed specifically as a mechanism to exclude Sinn Fein will create a two-tier electorate in which nationalist voters count for less.
"There is no way we will accept sanctions," said Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly. "Sinn Fein's electoral mandate must be respected in line with that of other parties."
"We will not accept any diminution of the rights of those many thousands of people who have made our party the largest nationalist party in the North," said Mitchel McLaughlin.
Outside Hillsborough's gates for a second day, the media waited for the promised 'breakthrough'. Inside, the talks were tortuous. Outside, the weather was deteriorating as rapidly as relations between some of the parties. It was announced that Tony Blair had cancelled his engagements in London, including a scheduled meeting with the Russian Foreign Secretary. A deal, it was assumed, must be tantalisingly close.
But as night fell, there was less talk of a deal and more of "a shared understanding". A great deal of work had been achieved but unionist insistence on the issue of 'sanctions' dashed any hope of completing the circle.
Shortly after 7pm, David Trimble abandoned his party's negotiating team and left Hillsborough. For a British Prime Minister who had cancelled his engagements, it was at best an ill-mannered snub. Trimble may have imagined his early departure fed a hardline unionist image, but for many people it was simply Trimble, the petulant child, leaving in a huff.
The talks adjourned shortly after midnight after two days of intensive talks. Elections, scheduled for 1 May, would be delayed for a further four weeks to enable parties to consult their members.
"Our purpose in doing so is to make sure that we get a lasting and durable settlement based on the Belfast or Good Friday Agreement, the full implementation of it in order to provide people in Northern Ireland with the peaceful and prosperous future we want to see," said Tony Blair.
Matters should be considered in the round, said Bertie Ahern. At the forthcoming elections, parties who took risks for peace needed to show that they could work together for a better future, the Taoiseach said.
The sanctions issue was a very large obstacle, said Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly, designed to put Sinn Fein out of the Assembly. "We will not have it."
New sanctions are non-starter
Editorial, Irelandclick.com
News that the British and Irish governments are considering the sanctioning of a political party in the Assembly without cross community support is a very worrying development.
Let’s get this straight. When they are talking about sanctioning a political party they are talking about Sinn Féin only. This is completely unacceptable and a complete turn-away from the Good Friday Agreement. As Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams said yesterday (Wednesday), that party cannot be held responsible for the actions of another organisation.
In the last Assembly the constant battle between the UUP and DUP to show which party was the true Unionist Party – ie who disliked Sinn Féin the most and could be the most disruptive – threatened to bring the Assembly down on numerous occasions.
Several times the DUP – along with a handful of anti-agreement UUP MLAs – almost won a Unionist majority. Only for the safeguard of the Agreement, which states that a majority in both communities is a component part of any decision-making in the Assembly, stopped the Stormont Executive resembling a charade.
Imagine the Assembly after the May poll – the election has now been put back to May 29.
Already most of the UUP candidates put forward for the forthcoming election are anti-Agreement. Along with the DUP MLAs it would take very little to bring the Assembly down on any given occasion – especially as there is a very real possibility that the DUP will come out of the election as the largest unionist party.
Wisely, the SDLP have come out against the new proposals and see it for the folly that it is. According to party leader Mark Durkan it could not be implemented and he is correct.
It’s quite astounding that when nationalist politicians are doing their best to get the Good Friday Agreement up and running again, unionists are more interested in how to bring it to its knees. During the recent talks with the Irish and British governments we have watched as Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble walked out of the important discussions claiming he had business in London to attend to. Not for the first time he was found wanting in the face of important decision making.
With progress having been made on remaining obstacles and other important issues at Hillsborough this week such as criminal justice, policing, equality and human rights, this recent development has a very real possibility of damaging any progress made. It seems like another mad idea in a long litany of mad ideas down through the years. Why do we seem so surprised? Have we learnt nothing?
Bertie's backing of sanctions may undermine peace process
By Sean Mac Carthaigh
The Irish government has sided with unionists and the British against the SDLP and Sinn Féin, nationalists believe. The move is being seen as a major shift in approach, which could seriously undermine the peace process.
The apparent policy U-turn centres on how to deal with individuals or parties accused of breaching the terms of the Good Friday Agreement. The Agreement itself, in paragraph 25, stipulates that "an individual may be removed from office following a decision of the Assembly taken on a crosscommunity basis".
But the British government, apparently supported by the Irish government is planning an attempt to bypass the "cross-community" stipulation.This would mean that David Trimble or Peter Robinson could expel Sinn Féin ministers from the power-sharing executive.
Unionists have long re-sented having to share power with any nationalists, but particularly Sinn Féin. For years, they have attempted to erect various barriers to Sinn Féin's participation in government. These include demands that:
The IRA says the "war is over"
Despite huge effort, unionist negotiators failed to make Sinn Féin's participation in government conditional on any of these in the Good Friday Agreement.
However, the British government used its extraordinary powers to suspend the Assembly four times, usually when Trimble's position as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party was being undermined by the 120-strong Orange Order contingent of his organisation as well as other anti- Agreement unionists. On each occasion, Irish government sources said they had been consulted before the suspension, and had agreed to it "reluctantly".
Last week, Trimble once more demanded a mechanism that would allow him to avoid sharing power with Sinn Féin, before walking out of marathon talks at Hillsborough Castle. The talks broke up w ithout ag re e ment, but sources say the British and Irish governments have secretly agreed to create a four or fiveperson "monitoring and compliance" board to examine alleged breaches of the Good Friday Agreement.
SDLP and Sinn Féin sources said this weekend they would not agree to any such additional structures that did not require cross-community support, as envisaged by the Agreement, to eject an individual or a party from the Assembly.
Irish officials would not be drawn on the details of a plan, saying only that the board would examine not just alleged activities of paramilitaries, but also the promised de-militarisation by Britain and the full participation in power-sharing by unionists.
Me anwh i le, Si n n Fe in sources appeared pessimistic about the current impasse, insisting any monitoring board outside of the Agreement would represent "a powerful weapon in the hands of David Trimble, or Ian Paisley".
"If that power had been there in the first place, I think it's safe to say Sinn Féin wouldn't have got through the door," a senior republican source said.
"We are amazed and disappointed that Bertie Ahern has allowed the Irish government's name go on this," the source said.
Sources said the attempt by the British government and unionists to bypass the Agreement created "no basis for the IRA to step forward with a proposal" to decommission more weapons or make statements about its future.
Senior SDLP sources insisted their negotiators had never agreed to any monitoring and compliance structures without the "cross-community" element, and stressed that even then, any proposed "sanctions" should be seen as a last resort, introduced only after an agreed clarification process.
Copyright © 2003 Sunday Business Post, Ireland
The Blair Project trembles on a knife edge
By Sean Mac Carthaigh
It is possible that Tony Blair cares so deeply about the North of Ireland that he is prepared to hang around Hillsborough Castle for two days.
Cancel the Russian foreign minister. Cancel the Queen of England. Persevere even after the realisation that the Ulster Unionists will not take yes for an answer and David Trimble has flounced off to London.
But seen in the context of his domestic problems, Tony Blair's behaviour is slightly less noble: he was desperate for a win.
Blair is now under serious pressure, and the stakes are his own political career. If the war on Iraq goes badly for him, he will probably be sitting in the House of Lords by this time next year.
From an Irish perspective, losing Blair could mean losing our best shot at getting Britain into the eurozone, creating a stable currency environment with our largest trading partner, and within Ireland as a whole. There is also the question of his successor's approach to the North.
At the root of Blair's domestic problems is the issue of the United States. Blair got on well with Bill Clinton, was seen to have a similar ideological approach and political style, and was mistrusted by the incoming Republican administration of George W Bush. When September 11 happened, Blair deliberately used it to reconstruct the Anglo-American alliance.
Blair was on solid ground for many months: few in Britain objected to the war against the Taliban and the manhunt for Osama bin Laden. But while Bush assiduously built the case domestically for a wider war against `evil', Blair did not attempt to link Saddam Hussein to al-Qaeda.
Throughout the US buildup for the war on Iraq, however, Blair has stuck close to Bush. But what looked like strength of purpose a year ago, appeared now as weakness.
As anti-war sentiment grew in Britain, he came to be portrayed as the US president's poodle. Opinion poll after poll showed most British people - and the overwhelming majority of Labour supporters - as being against the war. Last week the pollster Mori said the figure in favour of war without a second UN resolution was down to 24 per cent, with 67 against.
It has become clear,too,that several members of Blair's own cabinet are unhappy with his pro-American stance. Clare Short, the Birmingham- Irish Secretary of State for International Development, is reported to be deeply discontented. His Attorney General, Peter Goldsmith, is said to be concerned that an invasion of Iraq without at least a second UN resolution could be against international law.
And when it came to a House of Commons vote supporting Blair's stance, 122 Labour MPs rebelled.
None of these backbenchers believe that the Labour Party is in trouble, or that Tony Blair's stance on Iraq is damaging their chances of re-election.The latest polls show that Britain's Conservatives are in such poor shape, Labour would actually increase its majority if there were an election in the morning.
Even if theTories got exactly the same number of votes as Labour, one recent analysis showed, the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system and the Liberal Democrats' tactics would give Labour 100 seats more.
If anything, polls like these encourage revolting backbenchers, because they know there are no negative consequences. Many, elected on the 1997 New Labour surge, have now realised they are unlikely to achieve ministerial office. If there were to b e a heave against Blair, they would have nothing to lose.
Of the 122 rebels, more than 60 were what the London Independent called `virgins' - they had never before voted against Blair on anything.The theory is that once the taboo has been broken, the former virgins develop a taste for it, and will do it again and again.
On Tuesday, Guardian leader-writer and Friend-of-the- Blairs Martin Kettle described the phase of the Labour Party as `pre-post-Blairite'.
The most likely man to lead a heave is the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown. He and Blair were once the closest of political allies, and may still be. There have been persistent rumours that the pair have a pact that Blair will step down as prime minister after around ten years in the job, allowing Brown to take over.
Apart from saying that Britain would "spend what it takes" if there is a war, Brown has remained quiet on Iraq. Insiders say he likes America, but may be less hawkish on the question of war.
Brown was a central part of the 1990s shift to New Labour, but is still considered by some to be more sympathetic to the more traditional wing of the party. Such attributes, along with his experience and obvious talent, have made him the leading candidate by a mile to succeed Blair.
Unfortunately for Irish business, Brown's push for the leadership may revolve around the issue of the euro.
Blair has long been in favour of Britain adopting the euro, but stupidly gave a hostage to fortune in the form of a promise before the 1997 election that he would hold a referendum on the single currency before joining.
Brown is presumed by many to be against the euro. But while many officials within the British Treasury naturally oppose the move - it would, after all, remove economic tools from their sphere of influence - some observers say Brown could actually favour joining the euro, but has remained silent because it may become a convenient issue for him to use in his quest for the leadership.
Brown is com mitted to com menting by June on whether Britain has met the `Five Tests' under which it should join the euro. These include whether the eurozone and British economies have converged, but also harder-tomeasure questions such as whether the euro would benefit job creation.
To eliminate uncertainty in the financial markets, Brown is likely to reveal his attitude to the tests early, perhaps towards the end of next month.
Along a parallel timetable run the plans for war in Iraq. If all goes well for the US and Britain, the war will be swift and glorious, with few civilian casualties and a show trial of Saddam Hussein.
This would bestow upon Blair the aura of a great leader who persevered despite domestic opposition and triumphed, who repaired the transatlantic alliance. It could also be the perfect moment for him to boost his European credentials by launching the campaign for Britain to join the single currency, and taking centre-stage at the European Union's summits.
If, however, the war goes ahead without a second UN mandate, and turns out to be a long and bloody affair, replete with dead toddlers and escape for the wily Saddam, Blair's claim to be a great statesman will ring hollow.
Blair's satisfaction rating among Labour supporters already down to 49 per cent - would probably plummet. If Blair wanted to press ahead with his European project, Brown might make his move, citing Blair's pro-euro stance, as opposed to his own more `cautious' approach, as the issue of principle upon which he must act.
If Brown became British prime minister under such circumstances, he could not do an about-face and join the euro immediately. Irish business would probably have to wait until after the following election before the decision to join. With the run-in period before entry, it would be 2008 before a coin with an English monarch's head once again became legal tender across Ireland.
In the North, the idea of Brown in Number 10 provokes no celebrations among nationalists. He has shown himself to be a bitter opponent of Scottish nationalists, and may regard the Irish suggestion that Britain should ultimately plan to vacate the island in the same light.
There is also the question of his background. Brown is the son of a Scottish Presbyterian cleric, and as such could be expected to be instinctively sympathetic to the Nor th's unionists.
Such sympathy may evaporate,however,if and when Brown actually has to deal with the unionists. While their ultra-conservative notion of Britishness may remind Brown of his native Scotland in the 1950s, he is unlikely to be impressed by David Trimble's not-so-secret gra for the Tories.
Most observers say that Brown is, above all, a pragmatist who likes to get results. As such, nationalists will assure themselves, he is likely to check out the North's demographics - and the likelihood of a Catholic majority within 15 years - before anchoring his own political career to a lost cause.
Copyright © 2003 Sunday Business Post, Ireland