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DUP 26% - 30 seats SF 24% - 24 seats UUP 23% - 27 seats SDLP 17% - 18 seats Alliance 4% - 6 seats Ind. 3% - 1 seat PUP 1% - 1 seat UKUP 1% - 1 seat |
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Assembly elections
Wednesday, November 26, 2003
Results and Press commentaries
Election quotes
" ....seven out of ten people cast votes that clearly endorsed the peace process"
Mo Mowlam former Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
..."the election has proved what everyone knew already but most denied, namely that most unionists have not yet learned to live with an agreement which guarantees equality to nationalists, and that most nationalists have decided that Sinn Féin is the party which can best guarantee their aspirations. It will take a good while for those two new facts to be accepted."
Irish News - November 28, 2003
"The surge in the vote for the DUP and Sinn Fein has been dangerously presented in the media as a polarisation of public opinion in the Six Counties. Nothing could be further from the truth."
Republican News - November 28, 2003
"There is a crisis within unionism that will need some patience for the rest of us to show in the time ahead,"
"We have in this part of Ireland, as a result of British rule, a political slum"
Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams - November
"It's been a very good day for Ulster"
Ian Paisley
"There may be people in the DUP now who are saying they will not talk to Sinn Fein but they will. The Ulster Unionists once said no and ended up talking."
Sinn Fein's Mitchel McLaughlin, suggesting that Ian Paisley was losing control and dominance of his party.
"The people have chosen. And we must listen to them"
Mo Mowlam is a former Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
News obtained from the following sources
(1) Republican News, (2) Irish News, (3) Independent on Sunday
(4) Sunday Business Post, (5) RTÉ
Thursday-Friday, 27-28 November, 2003
Friday, 28 November, 2003
Sunday, 30 November, 2003
Sunday, 30 November, 2003
Thursday-Friday, 27-28 November, 2003
Analysis: No coincidence
The surge in the vote for the DUP and Sinn Fein has been dangerously presented in the media as a polarisation of public opinion in the Six Counties.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
The fact that Sinn Fein is a resurgent political party is a product of its peace strategy, a new assertiveness among northern nationalists and the subsequent decline of the SDLP.
The rise of anti-Agreement unionism is a reaction to this process, with unionist opposition to the Agreement growing in tandem with support for Sinn Fein. Unnerved by the fear of change and the perceived loss of influence, the wagons have been circled against the perceived foe.
Meanwhile, the veneer of righteousness had faded from the Reverend Ian Paisley. His outbursts of anti-Sinn Fein (read Catholic) rhetoric must make even his devoted followers quail with unease. At a time when cool heads are called for, the 77-year-old is still using the rhetoric of the seventies.
But the DUP, above all, is not immune to the trappings of power. In terms of popular vote, it is now the largest party in the Six Counties. This can command respect, as a boorish Nigel Dodds tetchily demanded from an unfortunate TV commentator last night. But it also brings responsibilities.
The DUP now represents the unionists of the Shankill Road through its elected representative in West Belfast, Diane Dodds. But how will the party lead that distressed community? With more bombast and pulpit-banging? Or with a reasonable strategy for ending its dispute with the nationalist community?
The DUP's stated policy of refusing to negotiate with Sinn Fein, the second largest party behind the DUP, is childish and outdated.
It is almost ten years since the IRA declared its ceasefire. It is now past time for unionism to respond with a ceasefire of its own.
Proconsul Murphy tells the natives to get on or get lost
By Brian Feeney, Irish News
Yesterday (Thursday) was the day of the headlines, the shock results, new faces bursting on the scene, old faces slipping away: Dr Deeny in Tyrone, Alex Maskey, old face new scene in South Belfast, Philip McGuigan in North Antrim, Caitriona Ruane in South Down. We'll let the old faces slip away in silence.
You'll notice all new for old action was on the nationalist side. Sinn Féin's amazing performance in some constituencies like West Belfast, South Down and North Antrim tended to obscure the simple truth that across the north this election confirms the results of the 2001 Westminster election when Sinn Féin overtook the SDLP. This assembly election clearly marks the changing of the guard.
On the unionist side of the fence the DUP are crowing that they will be the largest party in the assembly. They're a bit premature. When you look at the figures you see that what the DUP has managed to do is mop up all the splinters and fractions which emerged in 1996, bits of PUP, UKUP, NIUP, UUC most of them personal ego trips. Their appearance in 1996 in the disgraceful Forum election John Major devised to stall the peace process simply represented the confusion and consternation in unionism at the thought that they might have to negotiate something. By tomorrow most of them will be gone and good riddance to their self-indulgence.
For the DUP to scoop them up however is not the same as overtaking Trimble's UUP. Watch for the fifth and sixth seats in unionist constituencies when the UUP scoop up the transfers. It's already clear they are receiving transfers from DUP, Alliance and yes, SDLP voters obeying Mark Durkan's instructions but receiving no reciprocation. In the 1998 assembly election the UUP ended up with the highest number of seats only because of transfers. So you could have the strange outcome that the DUP increases its share of the vote but doesn't inflict real damage on the UUP.
What will do damage to the UUP is the tumour growing within its own body: the appearance among its assembly members of half a dozen anti-agreement members led by Jeffrey Donaldson. This group will seek to act as king-makers offering support to DUP proposals to undermine the agreement, blocking any conciliation or negotiation which might lead to the resurrection of the Northern Ireland Assembly, lending credence to the DUP's demand for renegotiation of the Good Friday Agreement.
On that point it's salutary to remind them of two points Seamus Mallon made yesterday.
First the agreement does not depend on the Stormont institutions. It will continue to operate through the British-Irish Intergovernmental Council which deals as the agreement states 'with the totality of relationships' and acts as the replacement of Maryfield. It was set up specifically to cope with unionist attempts to wreck the agreement.
Secondly, as Mallon said, when you subtract all the issues that can't be renegotiated such as release of prisoners, the end of the RUC, a new criminal justice system, all-Ireland bodies, constitutional changes in the Republic, all the DUP and the Donaldsonites are talking about is tinkering with the institutions at Stormont so that they suit their own objectives and there's no way they're going to succeed in that. The agreement goes on without the institutions, a set of circumstances which should suit Sinn Féin, the dominant majority party of nationalism, down to the ground.
As a result of the voting on Wednesday it's perfectly clear that voters have elected a ghost assembly. Our proconsul upstaged the count at the King's Hall to inform the natives how much he had decided to pay them until they co-operated with each other since he knows he can't set a date for a new assembly to sit.
Why not? Well, as soon as it does the clock begins to tick. If there's no executive elected in six weeks there has to be another election. Do you think the outcome would be any different? That's why our proconsul told the natives that it wasn't just a matter of an assembly sitting: he had to be satisfied there would be an executive as well.
So there'll be a cooling off period during which our proconsul will consult the party leaders, then there'll be a review of the workings of the agreement by which is meant, let's be clear once again, how an assembly would work, nothing else.
In the meantime the election has proved what everyone knew already but most denied, namely that most unionists have not yet learned to live with an agreement which guarantees equality to nationalists, and that most nationalists have decided that Sinn Féin is the party which can best guarantee their aspirations. It will take a good while for those two new facts to be accepted.
Results could lead to 'short-term' problems
By Roy Garland, Irish News
As I write Sinn Féin have performed exceptionally well in terms of first preference votes at the expense of the SDLP. Ulster Unionists votes have kept up well but the Democratic Unionists have achieved some quite remarkable results mainly at the expense of the smaller anti-agreement parties.
Other smaller parties have not polled well and some may eventually disappear completely. It would be particularly unfortunate if the PUP were eliminated because of the major contribution they made to making agreement possible.
The Women's Coalition, Alliance and others are being squeezed but there are other ways to make a political contribution and in any case, transfers remain all important in the final outcome.
The strengthening of the hand of Sinn Féin should increase confidence among republicans and enable them more easily to engage in the final acts of completion that are so urgently needed.
There is some indication that a small number of unionists gave later preferences not only to the SDLP but also to Sinn Féin.
One unionist at a polling station in Belfast said he would vote right down the list for pro-agreement candidates including, with some scruples, for Sinn Féin. His aim was to express opposition to the DUP.
This kind of thing, together with votes for Sinn Féin from nationalists designed only to promote republican involvement in politics means that many votes for Sinn Féin do not necessarily indicate a hardening of attitudes but rather a desire to end paramilitarism and violence.
The success of Sinn Féin therefore places a grave responsibility on them to continue making progress towards politics alone.
Early results would appear to suggest that polarisation is being reinforced. Our traditional camps, on the face of it, appear to be driven further into opposing tribes making accommodation even more problematic. The decline in the SDLP vote is a major negative factor that would seem to reduce chances of agreement and accommodation. However the fact that the UUP seem to have maintained their position despite anti-agreement factions within and without is a hopeful sign.
We must face the reality that a large section of the unionist community are disenchanted and dismayed with lack of progress in the peace process as well as with as with the operation of the agreement.
I don't think they are rejecting accommodation but rather they are unhappy with what they perceive as the increasing marginalisation of their own community.
The calls by the DUP for renegotiation can be interpreted in two ways. Iris Robinson, on election immediately thanked God for her victory.
Ian Paisley also seems to regard elections as the work of a God who is obviously less than all-powerful and could not succeed in making the DUP the dominant party.
This kind of thinking suggests that a section of the DUP are trapped in an mindset that conflicts with the concept of democracy.
If this 'God is on our side' mindset prevails the DUP is likely to stymie political progress and bring us further into stalemate.
However some DUP spokesmen seem ready to find a means of negotiating with other parties including republicans. They will claim disingenuously that this amounts to a renegotiation of the Good Friday Agreement itself. But all constitutions should remain open to amendment and so should the agreement. It would be a major boost to have the bulk of the unionist population clearly on board and satisfied with this process.
The real struggle however could centre on the differences between the pragmatic and theocratic wings of the DUP. The theocratic wing can never be satisfied under any democratic system but each wing needs the other if the DUP are ever to take off and really fly.
In this sense the DUP are like republicans because both once gave strict adherence to ancient texts and ideas and political success could free them both from the constrictions of fundamentalism. No democratic system can encompass the rhetoric of a theocratic DUP or fundamentalist dissident republicanism. The review might therefore either reinforce deadlock or prove to be of major importance in opening up new possibilities.
The DUP certainly have legitimate concerns in terms of the need to bring a large section of anti-agreement unionists on board but if the religious/fascist element proves dominant accommodation would prove impossible.
Many DUP people are not completely sold on the idea that this is a religious struggle so progress is possible though it can never be guaranteed.
Whatever happens a return to the old ways seems highly unlikely. Rather as a community Northern Irish people may lose out in the short-term, by losing the opportunity to actively shape our own future.
Instead two governments could play an ever-increasing role in shaping our future.
Few signs of compromise as deadlock hits Stormont
By David McKittrick, Ireland Correspondent of Independent on Sunday
The Government yesterday began picking up the pieces in the Northern Ireland peace process after the generally unwelcome outcome of the Belfast Assembly election.
The emergence of the Reverend Ian Paisley as the primary voice of Ulster Unionism is seen as hugely complicating the putting together of a new powersharing devolved administration in Belfast. The search is on for signs of flexibility within his Democratic Unionist Party (DUP); some hope that his more pragmatic deputy Peter Robinson might be prepared to soften the party's hard line.
But the prevailing view is that the prospects of the DUP reaching a deal which would include Sinn Fein are remote so long as Mr Paisley is at the helm. The line of both London and Dublin - and indeed all of the major local parties - is that the Good Friday Agreement is the only show in town. They have already rejected DUP demands for a renegotiation. In a statement the two governments declared: "In our firm view, the Agreement remains the only viable political framework that is capable of securing the support of both communities. Its fundamentals are not open to renegotiation."
The DUP success in overtaking David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) to become Northern Ireland's largest party has caused deadlock in the peace process. Ian Paisley Junior said yesterday that a new agreement was needed: "It's dead in the water. The Agreement is over - that was the message of this election." As the major Unionist party Mr Paisley has a veto on whether a new administration can be formed, and there is no chance of him reaching an accommodation with the largest nationalist party, which is now Sinn Fein.
The republicans decisively overtook the more moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), winning 24 seats to the SDLP's 18. The DUP won 30 Assembly seats, an increase of 10, while the Ulster Unionists lost one seat to finish with 27. Five of the new UUP members are also seen as anti-Agreement.
The fact that the DUP finished first - after decades of trying - has altered the balance of power within Unionism. His long-time rival Jeffrey Donaldson is calling for his resignation. Mr Trimble said yesterday he had no plans to step down. "I am not minded to go. In fact, I have been very much encouraged by the people who, ... have been urging me not to think about these matters. This is not the time to abandon one's post and one's responsibilities and to put one's own personal preferences ahead of the public interest." He forecast deadlock "for the next few months" but said a majority of the population still favoured the Agreement. The Government has several options, which include calling fresh elections or altering the terms of the Good Friday Agreement to allow Mr Trimble to form a coalition government based on a minority of Assembly Unionists.
However, all have major drawbacks, so for the immediate future it is deadlock. The Government's dilemma is that while around two-thirds of members of the new Assembly are pro-Agreement, its intricate system is built on support from a majority of Unionists and of nationalists. While both nationalist parties support the Agreement the election has produced an anti-Agreement majority within Unionism.
Northern Ireland Secretary Paul Murphy yesterday met the Ulster Unionists, Sinn Fein and the SDLP for talks, and is to meet the DUP tomorrow. He said progress would be difficult but not impossible: "The Agreement is not dead, most people in Northern Ireland want it to work. I am not underestimating the difficulties, but... we can make progress."
Copyright © 2003 Independent on Sunday
Government in private DUP contacts
By Barry O'Kelly and Sean Mac Carthaigh
Government officials will seek to open fresh communications with Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party following its election success.
The Sunday Business Post can reveal that Irish government officials had an informal meeting with the DUP's Peter Robinson and Gregory Campbell in Dublin in recent months.
One meeting,which was attended by Robinson, was held at the British Ambassador's residence in Dublin, according to sources. The unionist hardliner was a guest of the ambassador. Campbell is understood to have met officials at a number of social functions, the sources said.
The government's long-term goal is to establish a series of bilateral talks involving republicans and unionists.
An irate Robinson last week categorically denied any such contacts took place in Dublin. In a brief interview withThe Sunday Business Post, he claimed: "It's nonsense. It's absolute crap."
Yet he acknowledged that there had been contact with officials "at an informal social function", but that this took place in Derry. The meetings with Robinson and Campbell in Dublin were tentative efforts at "getting to know the lie of the land", a source said.
"You are likely to see increased exchanges over the coming months, but not necessarily in Dublin," the source said. "Their [the DUP's] mandate is not to walk away. It would be wrong to suggest that these were negotiations. It was a case of getting to know each other."
The hardline DUP has now overtaken DavidTrimble's Ulster Unionist Party and is claiming it will not talk to Sinn Féin in the foreseeable future. However, sources in Dublin said both sides can still be brought through third parties.
"They [the DUP] are going to have to engage in talks, not directly with Sinn Féin; there are many ways to do business,"said a senior official.
This official believes that Sinn Féin, by far the biggest nationalist party with 23.5 per cent of first preference votes in the North, will not be put out by the posturing by Robinson and Paisley.
"The Sinn Féin community is ensured of being treated badly by unionists," the official said. "The interesting question now is not if but when the DUP is going to start talking to Dublin in a formal sense."
The DUP will begin formal talks with the British government in the coming weeks.
"Don't assume they will get a warm welcome from Tony Blair," an Irish official said. "Blair is very cool on Paisley. These talks tend to be bilateral. There would have been relatively few meetings between Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionists leading up to the Good Friday Agreement.
"Reaching agreement on a way forward doesn't require the DUP and Sinn Féin meeting or talking directly."
Informal lines of communication are already open between the DUP and Dublin.
"Peter Robinson was in Dublin in recent months,Gregory Campbell has been here on several occasions," the official said.
"These arose from invitations to certain events.The officials know most of the DUP people.
"Lines of communication are likely to grow significantly in the months ahead.
"Inevitably, if they want to get anywhere they will have to engage in talks.When they get down to talking to the British government and the SDLP, that nonetheless means that lines of communications with Dublin will have to improve. The onus will not only be on them, it will be on us as well."
Copyright © 2003 Sunday Business Post
Mo Mowlam: The people have chosen. And we must listen to them
Some people might have wished for a different outcome to the election in Northern Ireland on Thursday. But the people have chosen, and we should listen to them. Some of the papers have referred to the result as a crisis. Others argue that the peace process is "on the brink of collapse".
Sinn Fein and the DUP have turned out to be the two major parties that represent the two communities. This reflects the basic division that has always been there, and the Northern Ireland people have said that it has to be faced up to. They have become dissatisfied with the more moderate parties, which have not been able to reach agreement because of the more extreme elements on both sides. The people have indicated in various polls that they agree with the Good Friday Agreement. This means that if the DUP and Sinn Fein are listening to the people, then they will need to find a way to work together.
It is no good Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern saying that the Good Friday Agreement is non-negotiable. What are non-negotiable are the principles that underlie it. These are the principle of consent, the principle of negotiation and the principle that all parties must reach agreement.
At the time of the negotiation of the agreement the political climate was very different. In America Bill Clinton was focused on the Northern Ireland problem. Europe helped with political and economic support. There was goodwill throughout the United Kingdom. But the world has changed. The present US administration has shown little or no interest in the problem. Things in Europe have moved on, and in Britain most people feel that the problem was substantially solved with the agreement, and do not understand the constant ongoing disputes between the parties.
It is this changed situation that must focus the minds of the newly elected politicians. In addition, Tony Blair has always had an enormous commitment to the peace process in Northern Ireland. But for him too, times have changed, and he has many other issues that command his attention.
Ian Paisley and his followers and Gerry Adams and the rest of Sinn Fein will have to face up to having to talk and negotiate with each other. In the past the DUP left the talks as Sinn Fein entered them. So the reality is that they have never sat down and talked before. I expect to see in the short term a continuance of the old behaviour; the DUP arguing that the IRA must hand in all weapons, and Sinn Fein arguing that it has moved far enough. Ian Paisley has already been speaking about his dissatisfaction with Sinn Fein's vote. The electorate has said to both sides that it is time to move on to a more constructive debate about how the Good Friday Agreement can work in the interests of everyone.
We know that most people in Northern Ireland support the agreement, so we can only interpret this election result as support for the agreement and support for the two parties that should engage in implementing it.
From reading the British press, they are up to their old tricks of describing this as a traumatic and dangerous situation. They seem to ignore the fact that seven out of ten people cast votes that clearly endorsed the peace process. And they should remember that before the devolved assembly was suspended there were two DUP members, two from Sinn Fein, two Ulster Unionists and two SDLP members in the government of Northern Ireland.
The other factor that has been overlooked but has affected the results is that Sinn Fein has an excellent election machine. Also, the DUP has had a lot of time and some very good brains working on campaigning for its candidates.
Many may believe that I am being over-optimistic in my assessment of the new political situation but I have always believed that you must have confidence that you can reach your goal, particularly if the people are behind you. Northern Ireland wants the peace process to continue. The electorate has recognised that the more extreme elements within the political spectrum are going to have to finally resolve a number of outstanding issues. What is encouraging is that this facing up to truth is being done in a democratic way.
Mo Mowlam is a former Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
Copyright © 2003 Independent on Sunday
Election news - Final Results
By Republican News
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DUP 26% - 30 seats SF 24% - 24 seats UUP 23% - 27 seats SDLP 17% - 18 seats Alliance 4% - 6 seats Ind. 3% - 1 seat PUP 1% - 1 seat UKUP 1% - 1 seat |
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