(1) Irish Republican News, (2) Irish Times, (3) RTÉ

Friday-Tuesday, 25 February-1 March, 2011

• All change? (1)

• Analysis: Radical change is what we really need (2)

Monday, 28 February, 2011

• Coalition talks underway (1)

• Election results RTÉ (3)

Friday-Tuesday, 25 February-1 March, 2011

All change?

By Irish Republican News

Predictions of a political transformation in Ireland came to fruition on Friday, when in the space of fifteen hours of polling, angry voters eviscerated the Fianna Fail and Green parties.

The unprecedented collapse in the Fianna Fail vote and the complete destruction of the Green Party saw voters flock to the opposition parties and a number of independents.

Sinn Fein saw the most dramatic increase in representation, going from four TDs in 2007 to 14 in the new Dublin parliament.

However, despite a huge swing to the parties of the left, it is the right-wing Fine Gael party which is in position to form a government. Short of an overall majority, it has already begun talks with the left-of-centre Labour Party as well as seeking the support of right-wing independents.

Fianna Fail, which last week had 72 TDs, will limp back to Leinster House next week with just 20 crestfallen deputies.

The party was almost completely wiped out in Dublin, with just Finance Minister Brian Lenihan clinging on to a seat. There are now Fianna Fail-free constituencies all over the country.

After holding power for nearly 60 of the past 80 years, the increasing levels of of croneyism and corruption within the organisation were sharply exposed by the banking crisis. The election produced an inevitable result, and the very future of the party is in doubt.

One of the biggest changes is the fact that the new Dail includes no member of the Haughey or Lemass families.

The Lenihans had three representatives in the outgoing Dail but this has been reduced to one. The two Andrews, Barry and Chris, are both gone.

The ousting of Tanaiste and Minister for Education Mary Coughlan, and Minister for Tourism Mary Hanafin mark the the end of two other Fianna Fail dynasties.

Among the many other big names to tumble were John O'Donoghue, Pat Carey, Dick Roche, Martin Mansergh and Frank Fahey.

In Dublin the left parties -- Labour, the United Left Alliance and Sinn Fein -- now hold a clear majority of 26 seats for the first time.

But fears are mounting that a lust for power will see the Labour Party propping up a right-wing government.

Talks between the Fine Gael and Labour negotiating teams are currently underway at Government Buildings.

Calling on the party to lead a "game-changing" opposition coalition of the left, the UNITE trade union said voters did not vote for a Fine Gael majority.

"Their [Fine Gael's] policies on privatisation, austerity and income cuts did not attract enough support, and should not now be facilitated by the tired old fallback of coalition with Labour," said UNITE regional secretary Jimmy Kelly

Mr Kelly said the Labour Party had "an historic opportunity" to lead "a greatly expanded" left-wing coalition.

He said an opposition led by Labour with the support of Sinn Fein, the United Left Alliance and other Independents would have 60 seats in the new Dail.

Both Labour and Fine Gael have said that the process of forming a coalition could be concluded before the weekend.

Asked about the statement from the Unite union, Labour leader Eamon Gilmore said only: "I thank them for their advice."

Copyright © Irish Republican News 2011

Friday-Tuesday, 25 February-1 March, 2011

Analysis: Radical change is what we really need

By Fintan O'Toole for the Irish Times

There is overwhelming agreement that the most important outcome of the election is a stable government. When there's overwhelming agreement about anything in Irish politics, it is usually wrong.

What exactly do we wish to stabilise? A grotesquely unjust and ruinous settlement with the banks, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank? A tacit acceptance that the burden of budgetary adjustment is to be borne by the poorest and the weakest? A system of crony capitalism in which the names of everyone who matters can be written on the back of an envelope? A polity in which, in the words of RS Thomas "And democracy the tip/ the rich and well-born give/ for your homage."

If this is stability, why should we fear fluidity? Wasn't it the cult of stability that made Mubarak the "best leader" for Egypt?

The paradox of our current political situation is that there can be no stability without radical change. Any attempt to keep the show on the road, to trim the sails a little but remain on essentially the same course will fail and fail quickly.

Even Fine Gael understands that what has happened is a kind of revolution. Enda Kenny calls it a "democratic revolution". Alan Shatter, perhaps articulating more openly what many in the party really feel, calls it a "blue revolution" - blue as in Blueshirt and Tory. But which is it?

A democratic revolution implies a radical reassertion of Irish sovereignty, a popular revolt, not just against Fianna Fail, but against the bank bailout and the EU-IMF deal as well.

A blue revolution, on the other hand, means simply that one tribe is out and the other is back in. The two propositions are not just very different. They are incompatible.

To be fair, it is not easy to interpret exactly what the election means. The people have spoken but beyond the furious scream of "We hate Fianna Fail", what are they saying? Two very different things.

A small majority - those who voted for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail - has broadly endorsed the bank bailout and the IMF-EU deal, albeit with some rather vague hope that the deal can be renewed on better terms. Most of the rest - those who voted for Labour, Sinn Fein, the United Left and a broad sweep of Independents ranging from Shane Ross to Mick Wallace - want to tear up the deal and start afresh.

Very crudely, the country is split between those who want a democratic revolution (a radical change in policy and culture) and those who want a blue revolution (a shift of power, albeit an extreme shift, within the existing governing consensus).

It is fair to say that, for the small majority that voted for a modified version of current policy, stability really is the primary goal. Having two big right-of-centre parties gives Irish conservatism both belt and braces. It can manage the dramatic gesture of whipping off the belt to whip Fianna Fail's behind, knowing the braces will ensure it is not exposed.

But this stability is impossible. Minor adjustments to the current regime will also mean minor adjustments to mass unemployment, mass emigration, rising poverty and inequality and economic torpor.

The goal of reaching a deficit of 3 per cent of GDP by 2014 is fanciful. And, in any case, Labour can't survive in a government that is imposing vicious austerity on its voters while diverting tens of billions to pay off private banking debts.

Labour's position, with the best result in its history, may look great but it is actually excruciating. It may have avoided (mistakenly in my view) the "default" word, but in practice it needs something very like it. Assuming Labour goes into government, there are just two possibilities.

One is that there is a successful confrontation with the EU at the end of March which changes all the parameters.

The other is that the EU sends the new government home with a few cosmetic concessions and instructions to carry on as heretofore.

The second of these scenarios is by far the more probable. If it comes to pass, we know all the rest. The government will become deeply unpopular because promises of real change have not been realised.

The smaller party will take the biggest battering, as it always does. Fine Gael will consolidate its position as the party of orthodoxy and "responsibility".

Labour will be devoured from two sides, its radical support eaten by Sinn Fein, the ULA and Independents and its "respectable" support consumed by Fine Gael.

The voters who were ruthless enough to decimate Fianna Fail will think nothing of decapitating Labour.

The very strange reality is that Eamon Gilmore will know which way it is to be within a few weeks of taking office. By the end of March, the results of the EU summit will determine whether Labour can credibly claim to be achieving real change or whether it is just a set of new faces implementing the old injustices. It is hard to see how the party could weather the second option. In a crisis, stability is impossible without revolutionary transformation.

Copyright © Irish Times 2011

Monday, 28 February, 2011

Coalition talks underway

By Irish Republican News

Fine Gael and Labour have commenced talks on the formation of a new coalition government following a historic collapse in the vote of the outgoing coalition partners, Fianna Fail and the Green Party.

Counting is continuing in the 26-County general election in three constituencies: Laois/Offaly, Galway West and Wicklow. The count process stopped on Sunday as successive queries were placed over the count process in three of the State's largest constituencies.

The projected outcome is currently Fine Gael 76 seats, Labour 37, Fianna Fail 19, Sinn Fein 15, United Left Alliance 5 and Others 14.

The election saw a broad swing to the left, as well as a strong swing from the conservative Fianna Fail party to the equally conservative Fine Gael party.

It was by far the worst result for Fianna Fail since the foundation of the party and a number of senior figures, including Tanaiste Mary Coughlan and deputy leader Mary Hanafin, lost their seats.

Fine Gael has had its best-ever election result in terms of seats and is the biggest party in the Dail for the first time in its history.

Sinn Fein is on course for its best-ever result in a 26 County election with 14 seats, while the United Left Alliance may end up with five, and Independents 14.

Labour party leader Eamon Gilmore and Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny are currently meeting in private at the Dublin parliament buildings to discuss potential policies and portfolios.

Both sides have said they are under pressure from Europe to quickly agree a pact and implement austerity budget plans.

Tonight, Sinn Fein was preparing for Brian Stanley to take the first Dail seat for a Sinn Fein party in Laois/Offaly since 1922.

A recount was ordered after just 26 votes separated Liam Quinn of Fine Gael and John Moloney of Fianna Fail.

Sinn Fein Vice President Mary Lou McDonald was loudly cheered as she arrived in the count centre this evening in anticipation of the historic election.

Ms McDonald said that Mr Stanley's election would be just the first of Sinn Fein's victories in the Irish midlands, long seen as one one of State's most conservative and immutable areas.

A full recount of votes is also under way in Wicklow, which has yet to elect a TD.

Only two votes reportedly separate outgoing Fianna Fail TD Dick Roche and running mate Pat Fitzgerald following a partial recount of the Wicklow vote.

The prospect of a Florida style "hanging-chad" scenario has been raised after Roche's camp, involving over a dozen lawyers and officials, started "yellow-tagging" disputed votes. A full recount is now under way.

Anger is simmering at the behaviour of Roche's camp and its efforts to cling to the seat, despite the overwhelming rejection of Fianna Fail nationally. Sinn Fein's John Brady retains a strong chance to take the final seat.

Meanwhile, a full recount of votes is underway in the Galway West constituency, where the failure of a thousand Sinn Fein votes to transfer looks to have scuppered the hopes of independent progressive, Catherine Connolly, in favour of a second Fine Gael candidate.

In Cork South Central, the constituency of Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin, Sinn Fein Councillor Chris O'Leary narrowly failed to take a seat from Martin's running mate, Michael McGrath.

And in Dun Laoghaire, prominent socialist campaigner Richard Boyd-Barrett took a seat for People for Profit (United Left Alliance) in Ireland's wealthiest constituency, ousting Minister Mary Hanafin and overcoming high-profile Labour candidate Ivana Bacik.

Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams said the results of the General Election could mark the beginning of a realignment of Irish politics.

"That is certainly Sinn Fein's focus," said Mr Adams, who defied the pundits when he headed the poll in the Louth constituency.

"The work which we are doing in the North under the leadership of Martin McGuinness will continue while our new increased mandate across the island will be honoured by us as we deliver on our commitments and encourage others to do the same.

"I want to thank all of our candidates and their families," he continued.

"I want to thank everyone who worked for Sinn Fein and all those citizens who voted for us.

"Theirs is is a vote for equality, a real republic and a United Ireland in which citizens are cherished."

REAL OPPOSITION

Speaking at a media event in Dublin this morning as the newly elected TD for Dublin Central, Ms McDonald said Sinn Fein will provide strong opposition and real backbone in the Dail.

"Sinn Fein will play a very important role in the 31st Dail in providing strong opposition to the incoming Government's plans to cut public services and social supports," she said.

Ms McDonald indicated that the party may have discussions with like-minded newly elected independent TDs, in the effort to overtake Fianna Fail and become the main opposition party in the Dail.

The move could make Gerry Adams the leader of the opposition.

Ms McDonald said: "We haven't had any sort of detailed discussion on joining forces with Independents.

"We are going into the Dail as an independent political party ourselves, but we will work with anybody that shares some or all of our political objectives."

The following is the current state of the parties:

Copyright © Irish Republican News 2011